tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-90391500029042874432024-02-20T00:00:05.048+09:00Prof. Matsuda's Open Emailshttp://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/index-e.htmlHiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.comBlogger114125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-64568484007393997482024-01-05T03:25:00.001+09:002024-01-05T03:25:20.695+09:00concern about the recent earthquake and aircraft accident in Japan <p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">Dear colleagues,</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">I sincerely
appreciate your thoughtful message expressing concern about the recent
earthquake and aircraft accident in Japan. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Noto holds a
special place in my heart as it is a base of the Kanazawa University Ecology
Group. They started another UNESCO Chair since 2023. I have been there
several times. One is a <a href="https://ouik.unu.edu/wp-content/uploads/1st-ACBCD-Oct-27-29-2016-Japan-Abstract-Book-UNU-IAS-OUIK.pdf">UN University event</a> at Nanao city. Noto.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">There was a
significant incident at Haneda on the 2nd. Personally, I frequently take
flights from New Chitose (Sapporo) to Haneda every year. The fact that there
were no casualties among the passengers is, at the very least, a relief. My
secretary is a former flight attendant, and her husband works for JAL. She was
deeply shocked when she saw the news but she mentioned that the annual
evacuation drill must have been a success. I told her that JAL should take
pride in that.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">I have had the
opportunity to witness the beauty of the Shiretoko World Heritage Site from a
Japan Coast Guard plane. Unfortunately, this incident occurred while the team
was departing for Noto for relief efforts.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">As we embark on a
new year, my fervent hope is that it will not be marred by misfortunes and
disasters</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">in the world.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 游ゴシック; font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: 游ゴシック; font-size: 11pt;">Best,</span></p>Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-39652579441425323712023-05-18T18:04:00.001+09:002023-05-18T18:05:10.203+09:005/13松田裕之最終講義 ご意見ご質問ありましたらお願いします<p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">お世話になった皆さま<span lang="EN-US"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">松田の<a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScyeRGoEy4Fd96La_MsOCpqqxsJIB92L4EVdB4wCcYHUnlVZQ/closedform">最終講義</a>に申込みいただき、ありがとうございました。おかげさまで、録画を残すことができました。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">ご質問、ご意見、お気づきの点がありましたら、このサイトのコメント欄にお願いします。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span lang="EN-US"></span></span></p>
<p></p>Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-7376761644892750172023-05-17T19:00:00.011+09:002023-05-17T19:09:38.061+09:00Genarative AI needs a new literacy.<p>Q:. Is there anything else you would like to share with UNESCO on the topic of policies and guidelines?</p><p>A:In Japan, Sophia University and Tohoku University released their notes on the use of generated AI *at the end of March and the University of Tokyo at the beginning of April*. Tohoku University notes the following points: (1) Using the output of AI as it is in reports and other answers is not for one's own study; (2) The use of AI is prohibited in some classes, and in some cases may be considered plagiarism; (3) When using AI for research and study, etc., it is not uncommon for AI output to contain errors, and it is necessary to confirm whether the AI output is correct or incorrect; (4) If unpublished papers or confidential information is input into a generative AI [even if not used in a report], there is a possibility that such information will be leaked or disclosed unintentionally [three years later]. Sophia University prohibits students from using it for report writing, etc., but other universities only caution against it, and many other universities have not yet noted.</p><p>Since it is difficult to tell whether a report submitted by a student was created using generative AI or not, it has been pointed out that a combination of face-to-face interview examination and written test is necessary.</p><p>Since the generated AI do not collect information on Japanese-language sites into the big data, Japanese-language information was particularly prone to errors, it seems to have improved a lot recently. (Please forgive that this text itself is also based on translation by DeepL).</p><p>* https://ledge.ai/chatgpt_university/</p><p>Q:In your opinion, what will be a main impact of generative AI on education now and in the future (concerning dimensions of, for instance, teaching, learning, evaluation, validation, research, etc.)?</p><p>A:This is my personal opinion. While the above points should be noted, generative AI is an extremely useful tool, and many researchers are using it to find relevant literature for their research and to refine their manuscripts. I usually ask my students to submit questions about my lectures as a report. So far, my lectures are not globally famous, it is impossible to ask the catchy and wit questions with the generative AI. On the other hand, I am creating the answers to the questions. The generative AI is like a teaching assistant that supports me and often has better parts than my own answers. Students can use the generative AI to learn not only what they learned in the lecture, but also relevant information. Importantly, we need to develop a new literacy to verify the authenticity of the generative AI. This literacy has already been needed since Google searches were first becoming popular.</p>Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-36634272350549347582023-03-31T18:16:00.005+09:002023-04-04T09:07:27.899+09:00Greetings: My Retirement and Reemployment <p>I will retire from the Yokohama National University (YNU) at the end of March, 2023. I have had the opportunity to work for the spread and development of ecological risk studies for 20 years at YNU (<a href="https://ecorisk.web.fc2.com/Springer2021.html">Matsuda, ed. 2021</a>, Springer), including the Global Center of Excellence Program "G<a href="http://gcoe.eis.ynu.ac.jp/">lobal Eco-Risk Management from the Asian Viewpoints</a>," the President of the East Asian Federations of Ecological Societies, and the UNESCO Chair "Education in Biosphere Reserves for Sustainable Society" (<a href="https://ebross.ynu.ac.jp/">EBRoSS</a>). I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the many people who have guided and supported me. I will give my final lecture on <a href="https://sites.google.com/view/matsuken2023">May 13</a> (in Japanese). I look forward to your attendance.</p><div style="text-align: right;">March 31, 2023 Hiroyuki Matsuda</div>Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-75815993675790435112022-07-08T18:47:00.005+09:002022-07-09T09:37:18.885+09:00Shinzo Abe, former Japanese prime minister, dies after being shot during election campaign<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Thank you for your concern for Japan.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">This is the seventh assassination of a present
or former prime minister since the modern era, and the first since World War
II.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Although far-left groups exist in Japan, this
time the perpetrator is a former member of the Self-Defense Forces, so his
ideological background is unknown.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">In any case, assassination during a
national election is a serious challenge to democracy and may have a
significant impact on the outcome of the election on July 10. I am concerned
about the possibility of Japan's “rearmament”.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-ex-prime-minister-abe-may-have-been-shot-taken-hospital-nhk-2022-07-08/">https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-ex-prime-minister-abe-may-have-been-shot-taken-hospital-nhk-2022-07-08/</a><br /></span></p>Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-86090066709697217632022-05-18T16:46:00.000+09:002022-05-18T16:46:39.222+09:00The 17-Article Constitution for Visiting Researchers to Collaborate with Local Communities<p> These articles are set up so that each article corresponds to the "<a href="https://www.utc.edu/sites/default/files/2020-12/shotokuanswerkey.pdf" target="_blank">17-Article Constitution of Prince Shotoku</a>" that is known by "all" Japanese. However, there are some that have almost the same purpose (bold below), some that can be said to correspond, and some that are rather the opposite (italicized below). We are in the position of recommending decentralization, although we think that Prince Shotoku's was an instruction to bureaucrats posted to local areas to promote centralization, rather than for local people. However, in terms of grasping the people's sympathy, we have much to learn from them. Today's bureaucrats probably receive a similar guidance, but researchers enter the region without such training and, possibly change their behavior through their own experience. The guidelines such as these would be necessary.</p><p><b>1. To value harmony above all else, and not to start quarrels.<br /></b><i>2. Find solutions based on the voices of the local, the views of the government, and the knowledge of scientists.<br />3. If a consensus is reached in the community, we will respectf and follow it.<br /></i><b>4. Be courteous to the people whose opinions is not agreeable.<br /></b>5. Don't be concerned about some financial burden.<br /><i>6. Do not take scientific findings as absolute.<br /></i>7. Expect and believe people, but do not ask too much of people.<br />8. Don't give up on a task that you have once accepted.<br />9. Explain honestly without deceit, even if it is inconvenient to the community.<br /><b>10. Discuss calmly and constructively.<br /></b>11. Explain the research outcomes to the community<br />12. Remind the possibility that the interests of the researcher and the interests of the community are different.<br /><b>13. The researcher should know the history of the community's efforts.<br /></b>14. The researcher should present the best scientific findings to the community without new or valuable research outcomes.<br />15. The researcher contacts with the local community for a long time.<br /><b>16. Adapt to the pace of the community and do not rush too much<br />17. Discuss decisions thoroughly and do not make them alone.</b></p><p><a href="https://ecorisk.web.fc2.com/2022/17articlesForVisitingResearchers.html">This </a>is originally written in Japanese shown in Matsuda's blog of <a href="https://hymatsuda.hatenablog.com/archive/2010/09/24">September 24, 2010</a></p><div id="fc2_footer" style="line-height: 14px; text-align: right; width: 1191.2px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /><a href="https://web.fc2.com/" target="_blank">Powered by FC2ホームページ</a></span></div><div id="fc2_affili-footer" style="border: none; bottom: 0px; height: 80px; left: 0px; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; position: relative; width: 1191.2px; z-index: 999;"><ul class=" static" id="fc2_affili-footer-body" style="background-color: white; border: none; bottom: 0px; height: 60px; left: 0px; list-style: none; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px; position: fixed; text-align: center; width: 1207.2px;"><li style="border: none; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative;"><span id="fc2_affili-bottone" style="position: absolute; right: 12.0625px; top: 0px;"><img alt="close" height="10" id="fc2_affili-footer-close" src="https://static.fc2.com/fc2web/image/bar_close.gif" style="cursor: pointer;" width="11" /></span></li><li id="fc2_affili-footer-tag" style="border: none;"><iframe allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" height="60" scrolling="no" src="https://static.fc2.com/fc2web/ad/fc2affiliate.html?u=36126482" width="100%"></iframe></li></ul></div>Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-50993198013437164602021-02-19T04:21:00.003+09:002021-02-19T04:21:47.036+09:00UNESCO's MAB 50th anniversary site introduces a video by Japanese Biosphere Reserve Network. <p><a href="https://en.unesco.org/mab/50years" target="_blank">UNESCO's MAB 50th anniversary site</a> (or the <a href="https://en.unesco.org/news/japanese-biosphere-reserves-review-50th-anniversary-unescos-mab-programme" target="_blank">permanent site</a>) introduces a video by Japanese Biosphere Reserve Network. </p><p>I give comments twice in <a href=" https://youtu.be/ehkTKrWcx4Y" target="_blank">this video.</a></p><p>35s- "Natural world heritage sites are focused on conservation that they restrict human activities. I don’t think that’s a good idea. But Biosphere Reserves have strived to realize harmony between humans and nature for 50 years, all over the world. I think this idea is more progressive than establishing natural heritage sites.</p><p>15m3s- "I think that the distancing between nature and people will change in the generation of children. To tell the truth, there are both benefits and risks to contact between people and nature. We have to understand this as we familiarize ourselves with nature, and that’s what it really means to lives in harmony with nature. It’s not just a matter of protecting nature or wildlife. It’s actually about making use of nature, accepting the risks and continuing to use it sustainably. That’s what I expect UNESCO's MAB Programme will achieve.</p><div><br /></div>Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-61492429119785917922020-07-18T12:38:00.001+09:002020-07-18T12:38:14.232+09:00UNEP's report on zoonotic disease<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
PREVENTING THE NEXT PANDEMIC:Zoonotic diseases and how to break <br />the chain of transmission UNEP report <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/32316/ZP.%20pdf">full text</a><br />see also (<a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/32316/ZP.%20pdf">related shorter documents</a> and <a href="https://sustainablejapan.jp/2020/07/12/unep-zoonoses/51849">more</a>)<br />According to the UNEP full report:<br />
<blockquote>
"Ecological tourism and human settlements near caves and forested<br /> areas, particularly those with poor housing conditions, can increase <br />human-wildlife contacts and human exposure to insects, ticks and other vectors of wildlife pathogens. "<br />
</blockquote>
<br />
I think ecotourism may need some guideline to decrease (not completely prevent) such risk of tourists and guides (In japan, mite's SFTS and bear attack are concerned).</div>
Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-79643279957087589912019-11-17T11:04:00.001+09:002019-11-17T11:16:48.327+09:00Is japanese chub mackerel still overfished? <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Is japanese chub mackerel still overfished? A problem on the current stock assessment in Japanese fisheries<br />
<br />
I think that the generic model used to calculate the MSY and ABC of each fish species stock is somewhat unrealistic. At least in the case of chub mackerel on Pacific waters, the result looks very odd and it will drastically different if decadal change of oceanic environment (regime shift) is incorporated, or if we exclude the data before 1990 when the recruitment was very weak. we must obtain that there seems to be no problem with the current catch.<br />
Since the MSY concept has changed to take into account process errors and regime shifts, the criticism to classic MSY theory based on stationary environmental condition without decadal change or yearly change in the oceanic condition, is not appropriate (criticism to the straw man), but process errors are taken into account, but interspecific relationships and regime shifts are not incorporated into generic methods in the current stock assessment in Japanese fisheries.<br />
This is the reason why the Kobe plot of the chub mackerel in Pacific waters (right figure on P2) still looks very odd. From around 2008, it is understood that the stock increased steadily despite being it is consistently been overfishing. The historically largest stock in 1970s was also less than the MSY stock level.<br />
<br />
The assessors may consider that, in the case of the chub mackerel stock, since around 2008, RPS has been consistently abnormally high (the resources that should be reduced on average) have continued to increase, and decreased for the first time in 2017. They did not use the concept of regime shift.<br />
After all, I doubt the <a href="http://www.fra.affrc.go.jp/shigen_hyoka/SCmeeting/2019-1/digest_masaba_p.pdf">stock assessment by Japanese Fisheries Research Agency that the chub mackerel</a> was still been overfishing.<br />
<br />
Calculation without looking at the faces of fishermen is not "resource management that is rooted only in science". Regarding the assessment of resources and the new ABC (Allowable Biological Catch) rules, the Fisheries Agency respects the independence of research institutions (Fisheries Research Agency =FRA). Since it is an administrative matter regarding the TAC for each fish species and the development of measures for stock assessment, On the other hand, the resource assessment will be led by the FRA, and the Fisheries Agency will not be involved. Recently FRA stock assessors whose office was close to fisheries markets moved to central building (Yokohama). They will have much fewer chances to hear or see the fishing markets and voices of fishers.<br />
However, even if the resource evaluation is calculated by getting data from the site, it may or may not match the site feeling. I think that resource evaluation will be often odd from the result of this arrangement.<br />
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Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-52321541761363309962019-06-28T09:22:00.001+09:002019-06-28T09:22:08.255+09:00Comments on Bear and Deer Management in Shiretoko World Heritage site<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Date: Thu, 27 Jun 2019 21:08:44 +0900<br />
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Dear WG members<br />
I heard that the vegetation on the Rausu side showed a certain recovery. I am much impressed because I recommended the necessity the population control experiment of deer in the heritage site in 2005. At that time, the choice of no-control was supported by the majority of the scientists. The choice should defenitely be determined by the society, but the fate should have been quite different.<br />
It would be impossible to make major changes to the draft plan only with a 3-hour conference. In the old days, discussions were advanced deeply by emails in before and after the meetings. It may be better to decide on the policy for the next fiscal year at the second meeting in autumn, but if we look at the results of last year's survey and plan for the next fiscal year, measures will be delayed by one year. The document was released 5 days before, we could discuss it before the meeting.<br />
As for the brown bear, it is obvious that the quantitative goals have not been achieved, and have even deteriorated, despite of the fact that we paid many efforts for monitoring and countermeasures. It is the "results" that appear in the newspaper that the Ministry of the Environment accepted the research project to evaluate population size of bears, but no improvement about human-bear confict has to be done. Even if we control human behavior, the number of bears will continue to increase and bears will not be afraid of people (even in Sapporo, even in similar situations it is ineffective). The reason I did zoning was to provide the means to effectively control the behavior of people in bear-first places (core area of national parks and others), and to remove the bears without hesitation in human-first places (towns, farms, etc.), so as to aim for the coexistence of both people and bears. Neither of them has worked, and the bear-first place extends beyond the heritage area. (This is choosed by the local community, but I think that the confict has increased and will increase more.)<br />
About two years ago, the Shiretoko Foundation had been forced to chace out or cull bears beyond their working limit. If they chace bears that appears first time, and do not chase them until they decide to cull them. Chasing is not effective to regulate bears behaviors. I did not know any difference in zones in such responses. I did not hear the word "adaptive management" but originally I said the countermeasures to bears depend on the total number of bears and the number of bad bears that do not escape from people. Therefore, unlike deer, we need to monitor both the total number of bears and the number of "bad bears", and that number has been monitored in Donan (South Hokkaido). I think we can monitor the number of "bad bears" in Shireto, but it has not been written in the management plan.<br />
<br />
From 2005 to the present, the number of deer has been greatly reduced. We must publish an article on this success of population control. You can see that the goal of the vegetation recovery (especially the renewal of saplings) has not been achieved yet, but I think that the current measures are less effective. I also think that there is a way to quit shooting and hunting for about 2 years (or 1 year).<br />
It is unfortunate to say that relying on game hunting is currently at risk of accidental fire to kill a forest ranger. It would be much safer to aim at a system in which people from the Ministry of the Environment and Forestry Agency perform gun hunting by themselves. In that sense, I deeply appreciate the Shiretoko Foundation. I even think that the development of the Shiretoko Foundation holds the fortune of natural park management throughout Japan.</div>
Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-48364233758352300752019-06-14T10:57:00.002+09:002019-06-14T10:57:53.070+09:00Japan's Ministry of Environment prioritizes a national park landscape over a wind farm<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<a href="https://www.env.go.jp/press/100207.html">The opinion of the Minister of the Environment on the Ukushima Wind Power Projec</a>t in 2015 was very disappointing.<br />
<br />
I do not know if the landscape of the wind farm is really a problem in the designation of the world's cultural heritage. I agree to investigate the impact.<br />
<br />
In any case, the minister's recommendation to only abolish the turbines to avoid impact on the national park landscape, at least at this location, the Minister of the Environment prioritizes the national park landscape over carbon free energy means. In contrast, layout changes or discontinuations were requested to avoid noise, shadows of nearby wind turbines, and effects on flora and fauna.<br />
<br />
The issue of climate change is said to be one of the most important issues in the global environment. In Germany, <a href="https://hymatsuda.hatenablog.com/entry/20160907/1473266253">the scene where a windmill stands on the whole surface </a>of a national park seems to be common recently.</div>
Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-15903144191695229512019-03-21T13:30:00.001+09:002019-03-28T15:33:40.169+09:00S-14 Symposium "New Frontiers in Climate Change Impact Assessment Research and its Counter Measures"<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
(<a href="http://s-14.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/meeting20190508/">Official site in Japanese</a> Please visit it for participation)<br />
May 8, 2019: 3 pm-5 pm, at <a href="http://www.kcif.or.jp/en">Kyoto City International Foundation</a><br />
Program<br />
15:00 Introduction (Taikan Oki)<br />
15:05 Hans-Otto Poertner<br />
15:35 Yukiko Hirabayashi: How much do we need to adapt climate change?<br />
15:45 Hiroyuki Matsuda: Are climate change measures compatible with nature protection?<br />
15:55 Manabu Kanda: How do we adapt ourselves to climate change and urban warming ?<br />
16:05 Yasuaki Hijioka: How much do we need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions?<br />
16:15 Taikan Oki: How to balance mitigation and adaptation to climate change?<br />
16:25 Panel Discussion (moderator: Hiroyuki Matsuda)<br />
17:00 Closing remarks</div>
Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-68511951570672900262018-07-18T15:24:00.003+09:002018-07-18T15:25:04.660+09:00How many species have gone extinct ? 941 species are listed in IUCN Redlist!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: "meiryo ui" , "ms ui gothic" , "ms pgothic" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms gothic" , "ms ゴシック" , sans-serif , serif , "emojifont"; font-size: 14.6667px;">A. It depends on the definition of species. If you count only described (known) species, 941 species among evaluated 43700 taxa are listed as extinct or extinct in the wild in IUCN Redlist database. (see <a href="http://ecorisk.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2018/HowToObtainTheNumberOfExtinctSpecies.png">PNG</a></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: "meiryo ui" , "ms ui gothic" , "ms pgothic" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms gothic" , "ms ゴシック" , sans-serif , serif , "emojifont"; font-size: 14.6667px;"> for a method to get this number from <a href="http://www.iucnredlist.org/">IUCN's Red List website</a> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: "meiryo ui" , "ms ui gothic" , "ms pgothic" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms gothic" , "ms ゴシック" , sans-serif , serif , "emojifont"; font-size: 14.6667px;">). Note that extinct species recorded in 2002 does not mean the species went extinct in 2002 but is decided as extinct in 2002. In addition, there are many undescribed species (see <a href="https://image.slidesharecdn.com/monitoringandindices-141110141837-conversion-gate01/95/monitoring-and-biodiversity-indices-23-638.jpg?cb=1415629574">Monitoring and biodiversity indices</a></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: "meiryo ui" , "ms ui gothic" , "ms pgothic" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms gothic" , "ms ゴシック" , sans-serif , serif , "emojifont"; font-size: 14.6667px;">). Therefore the number of extinct species may be bigger if we include undescribed species. It is noted that the number of extinct species /day is >1, probably ca.10 or more (e.g. <a href="http://wwf.panda.org/our_work/biodiversity/biodiversity/">WWF website</a></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #212121; font-family: "meiryo ui" , "ms ui gothic" , "ms pgothic" , "ms pゴシック" , "ms gothic" , "ms ゴシック" , sans-serif , serif , "emojifont"; font-size: 14.6667px;">). However, if the extinction rate is not significantly different between described and undescribed species, this is definitely far overestimation.</span></div>
Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-49126046839308536662018-06-12T19:32:00.002+09:002018-06-12T19:32:54.412+09:00Why do those who eat beef criticize whaling?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I would like to introduce the debate on whaling when I was a visiting researcher in USA in 1992. <br />I usually introduced an episode of "<a href="https://fablesofaesop.com/the-dog-and-the-wolf.html">The wolf and the dog in the fables of Aesop"</a>:<br />A Dog offered to help a Wolf get regular feed from his Master. The Wolf saw a bald spot on Dog’s neck where the collar sat. Goodbye said Wolf. Better starve free than be a fat slave.<br />
Eating livestock is a double sin. Those who eat beef rob the cow's freedom and kill. In my experience, nobody refuted me. But... 1 decade later, I knew that many non-Japanese students in ecology became vegetarians. I respect that they deeply seek self-consistency. But I do not agree with them if they forced others to adopt their new rules.</div>
Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-75452064090736055732018-03-22T17:16:00.001+09:002018-03-22T17:16:36.343+09:00Age-structured models. Background readings Lawson TA & Hilborn R (1985) Equilibrium yields and yield isopleths from a general age-structured model of. - ppt download<a href="http://slideplayer.com/slide/11473045/#.WrNmXDxxII4.blogger">Age-structured models. Background readings Lawson TA & Hilborn R (1985) Equilibrium yields and yield isopleths from a general age-structured model of. - ppt download</a>Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-33065216324962810402017-10-15T10:13:00.001+09:002017-10-15T10:19:09.823+09:00Greeting Cheers on the Society of Population Ecology<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Dear Participants of the <a href="http://www.biology.kyushu-u.ac.jp/~populecol33/index.html">33rd Annual Meeting of the Society of Population Ecology</a>,<br />
Welcome to Fukuoka,<br />
Non-Japanese members of our society may mind the future of this society if you heard a plan to collaborate the editorial boards between Population Ecology and Ecological Research.<br />
Do not worry! Three present and past presidents of this society were also <a href="http://www.esj.ne.jp/esj/Orgnzn.html#歴代会長list">the past president of Ecological Society of Japan</a>. Many steering committee members of this society overlap with the national committee members of ESJ. We plan to develop our activities of Population Ecology with ESJ.<br />
Our slogan is NOT Japanese first, but Ecology first! Please enjoy this meeting and Fukuoka!<br />
I hope your happiness, success, and the development of ecology!</div>
Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-75506243014548607822017-08-16T17:10:00.002+09:002017-08-16T17:18:59.208+09:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Is tuna farming so bad? It depends on the situation including mortality in the cage.<br />
Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2017 17:00:55 +0900<br />
1. Catch of less than 3 years old is growth overfishing.<br />
2. Under the current fishing mortarity, % SPR was less than 10%, implying heavy overfishing.<br />
3. Catch of less than 5 years old or catch during spawning season is probably recruitment overfishing if we seek 40% SPR as sustainability constraint, the price during spawning season is much cheaper than during the winter, and assuming M=0.25/yr. I used the method by Matsuda et al. (1999).<br />
4. Under the optimal age- and season-specific fishing, YPR under sustainable fisheries is nearly the same as the current YPR under current overfishing. We also expect a big stock recovery under the optimal fishery.<br />
<br />
<br />
1) We can incorporate the effect of cultivated tuna. The impact on stock depends on the age caught, but as cultured tuna grows. It will rise in price. Tuna far,omg is not bad unless the mortality rate in the cage and the cost of cultivation are not too high.<br />
2) However, a small part of immature tunas caught in purse seine are used for tuna farming (but we do not know the published data). Perhaps 3)It also depends on the cost of feeding and mortality in the cage (unpublished). In addition, now Japanese tuna farming is probably excessive and a large part of cultured tunas is not sold on the market. This implies an economic failure of tuna farming industry.<br />
4) But reproductive values (ecological sense) during spawning season is only ca.10% larger than that during non-spawning season. Therefore, tuna farming is reasonable unless most of cultured fish are discarded on the market, the cost of cultivation or the mortality rate in the cage is not too high, or and these data are not published.<br />
<br />
Matsuda H, Yamauchi A, Matsumiya Y and Yamakawa T (1999) Reproductive value, harvest value, impact multiplier as indicators for maximum sustainable fisheries. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies 2:129-146.<br />
See also my Japanese blog.</div>
Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-75796334861414008172017-03-31T23:58:00.003+09:002017-03-31T23:58:43.769+09:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I look forward to discussion with the audience of "Mission Blue" on April 13, Kyoto University.<br />
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Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-62707935703745930042017-03-30T12:49:00.001+09:002017-03-30T14:40:39.310+09:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Toward the Establishment of Technical Standards for Use in Marine Environment Impact Assessment <a href="http://www.cosie-sip.ynu.ac.jp/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/PrepCom3side_event__170330_agenda.pdf">pdf</a><br />
30th March 2017<br />
UN Conference Room 8<br />
JAMSTEC, ISA, ISO<br />
(Lunch will be provided in the Vienna Cafe area starting at 1:00 p.m.)<br />
1:15 p.m. to 2:45 p.m.<br />
Back Ground<br />
In 2016, the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) established a working group (TC8/SC13/WG4) to make ISO standards on Marine Environment Impact Assessment (MEIA) applicable to all maritime areas. Actually, the existing international treaties on the law of the sea incorporate ISO standards and utilize them, because ISO standards are basically based on scientific evidence and technology, and therefore comparatively easy for States to accept. Meanwhile, in January 2017, the International Seabed Authority (ISA) published the Discussion Paper on the Development of “Environmental Regulations”. In this way, currently, the rules and standards on MEIA are being developed, not only in the PrepCom for new treaty of BBNJ, but also in the multiple arena,.<br />
Against this background, ISO, ISA and Japan Agency of Marine of Marine Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)will jointly organize this side event to introduce the concept of the possible new ISO standard for MEIA, that will be compatible with future ISA regulations, showing the new technology for MEIA developed by JAMSTEC and related institutes.<br />
Event Agenda<br />
General Introduction:Dr. Yoshihisa Shirayama, JAMSTEC<br />
Presentations:<br />
Current Development of Technical Standards for MEIA,Dr. Makoto Seta, YNU-DEEPS<br />
International Seabed Authority’s provision for EIA in the Area under approved plan of work, Dr. Sandor Mulsow, ISA,<br />
Possible new ISO standards on MEIA, Prof.Koichi Yoshida, YNU-DEEPS<br />
Open Discussion:Moderator,Prof. Koichi Yoshida<br />
Closing remark:Prof. Yoshiyuki Nakamura, YNU<br />
http://www.cosie-sip.ynu.ac.jp/english<br />
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Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-85999259067083479032016-10-24T14:21:00.000+09:002016-10-24T14:21:01.608+09:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Merit of Japan says to list Pacific bluefin to CITES Appendix II/III<br />
Date: Sat, 22 Oct 2016 21:07:52 +0900<br />
Dear all,<br />
[<a href="http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4612-5950-3_6">Pacific Islands fail to agree plan to protect tuna</a>]<br />
I have found one idea for Pacific bluefin.tuna.<br />
If Japan propose to list PBF in CITES Appendix II, Taiwan and other nations cannot export PBF to Japan..Because Japan is the biggest consumer of PBT, other nations did not propose this idea. But Japan can do.<br />
The listing is not my ultimate goal, but Japan can convince other Pacific islands nations to make a consensus of a stronger regulation of PBT fisheries in WCPFC. Therefore, Japan cannot say an excuse that consensus failed because Pacific islands disagreed.<br />
Even though CITES does not agree with this listing. I think Japan can list it in CITES appendix III only by Japanese decision.<br />
Therefore, environmental groups can push Japan to make a leadership for consensus building.<br />
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Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-41135047323869449072016-10-22T20:03:00.003+09:002016-10-23T17:26:56.169+09:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
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I compare two figures for spawning stock biomass of eastern Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABT), in 2009 and 2014. The former was used to support listing of it to CITES Appendix I in 2010. This was rejected. Recently ABT is recognized as a success story of stock recovery. But... it did NOT decrease in 2000s.<br />
Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2016 14:34:27 +0900<br />
Stock assessment older than 20 yrs (maybe >maximum age class of ABT) is robust.<br />
but recent stock estimation will be revised, because it is based on a cohort<br />
analysis using catch-at-age data. </div>
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Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-62967611550369787532016-08-13T12:23:00.002+09:002016-08-13T12:23:55.466+09:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I talk about UNESCO's Biosphere Reserves and Carbon offset in "Training for realizing a society in harmony with nature for the JICA-SDBEC Program, on 1 August 2016, at JICA Yokohama:<br />
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<ol style="text-align: left;">
<li>Biosphere reserves are models of sustainable development in the WNBR; (see MAB Strategy 2015-2025)</li>
<li>Indulgence controversy: Some activists disagree with the principle of carbon offsets, likening them to Roman Catholic indul-gences, a way for the guilty to pay for absolution rather than changing their behavior.... Proponents hold that the indulgence analogy is flawed because they claim carbon offsets actually reduce carbon emissions, changing the business as usual, and therefore address the root cause of climate change. (see en.wikipedia.org)</li>
<li>The end of the Oil Age: “The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” the quotation is from Sheikh Zaki Yamani, a past oil minister of Saudi Arabia (in 1970’s). Because he believes that something fundamental <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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has shifted since that first oil shock. Finally, advances in technology are beginning to offer a way for economies, especially those of the developed world, to diversify their supplies of energy and reduce their demand for petroleum, thus loosening the grip of oil and the countries that produce it. (see www.economist.com Oct 23rd 2003)</li>
<li>Ivan the fool and Biodiversity Credit: Ivan‘s wife said to the old devil: “You must excuse my sister-in-law; she will not allow any one to sit at the table whose hands have not been hardened by toil, so you will have to wait until the dinner is over and then you can have what is left… "Ivan: "We all work with our hands." The devil: "And for that reason you are fools, I can teach you how to use your brains, and you will find such labor more beneficial." Ivan was surprised: "Well, it is perhaps not without good reason that we are called fools." The devil: "It is not so easy to work with the brain," (see http://www.bartleby.com/ebook/adobe/3172.pdf)</li>
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My Conclusion: <div>
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<ol style="text-align: left;">
<li>Now, Environmental offsets/credits and Payment for Ecosystem Services are good incentives to promote global environment-friendly economy and green ethics.</li>
<li>It is not indulgence if it really reduces environmental impacts</li>
<li>But,… we’d like to respect to nature and real ecosystem producers (farmers).</li>
</ol>
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Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-14689379098538100782016-06-21T04:35:00.000+09:002016-06-21T04:35:00.103+09:00Anachronism on illusion of density-independence in biology<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2016 16:49:41 +0900<br />
A leader of Japanese fisheries scientist, Kazumi Sakuramoto, wrote an article "Illusion of a density-dependent effect in biology"<br />
<br />
I was much surprised that this article was accepted by a journal "Agricultural Sciences".<br />
<br />
I have the following comments:<br />
1. It is well known that a simple statistical test of correlation makes an artifact of density dependence (Dennis & Taper 1994).<br />
2. But there is a rigorous method to detect density dependence (Dennis & Taper 1994). Not a few real time series showed statistically significant density dependence, although we cannot detect density dependence from some poor time series.<br />
3. (Lack of density-dependence) have now been rejected on logical grounds, and it is generally accepted that population regulation cannot occur in the absence of density dependence (Turchin 1995).<br />
4. Definitely density-dependence and environmental fluctuation are not mutually exclusive. It has been well known in international fisheries management organizations.<br />
5. MSY [Maximum sustainable yield] theory is definitely based on density-dependence, but it does not mean that MSY theory must be adopted if density dependence really exists.<br />
<br />
References<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, MS明朝, serif; font-size: 14.4px; line-height: 21.6px;">Sakuramoto K (2015) </span><a href="http://file.scirp.org/pdf/AS_2015052520400909.pdf" style="background-color: white; color: #0196a3; font-family: Georgia, MS明朝, serif; font-size: 14.4px; line-height: 21.6px; text-decoration: none; word-break: break-all;" target="_blank">Illusion of a Density-Dependent Effect in Biology</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, MS明朝, serif; font-size: 14.4px; line-height: 21.6px;">. Agricultural Sciences, 6: 479-488</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, MS明朝, serif; font-size: 14.4px; line-height: 21.6px;">Turchin P (1995)</span><a href="http://www.citeulike.org/user/roodubh/article/6473506" style="background-color: white; color: #0196a3; font-family: Georgia, MS明朝, serif; font-size: 14.4px; line-height: 21.6px; text-decoration: none; word-break: break-all;" target="_blank"> Population regulation: old arguments and a new synthesis</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, MS明朝, serif; font-size: 14.4px; line-height: 21.6px;">. N. Cappuccino, P.W. Price (</span><a class="keyword" href="http://d.hatena.ne.jp/keyword/Eds" style="background-color: white; border: none; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, MS明朝, serif; font-size: 14.4px; line-height: 21.6px; text-decoration: none; word-break: break-all;">Eds</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, MS明朝, serif; font-size: 14.4px; line-height: 21.6px;">.), Population Dynamics, Academic Press (1995), </span><a class="keyword" href="http://d.hatena.ne.jp/keyword/pp" style="background-color: white; border: none; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, MS明朝, serif; font-size: 14.4px; line-height: 21.6px; text-decoration: none; word-break: break-all;">pp</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, MS明朝, serif; font-size: 14.4px; line-height: 21.6px;">. 19–40</span><br />
<div class="1" style="margin-left: 28.0pt; text-indent: -28.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS ゴシック";">Dennis B, Taper ML
(1994) Density dependence in time series observations of natural populations:
Estimation and testing. Ecol Monogr 64:205-224.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-30213534428558653232016-06-17T14:29:00.000+09:002016-06-17T14:29:47.829+09:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Illusion of a Density-Dependent Effect in Biology? Incredible back to a 1950s controversy.<br />
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/as.2015.65047<br />
<br />
Population changes are believed to be controlled by multiple factors, including an important density-dependent effect. This paper reviews the literature on this topic and shows that this density-dependent effect does not exist. This paper also gives a typical example in which no density-dependent effect was detected in the stock-recruitment relationship in Japanese sardines. The recruitment was found to be determined in proportion to the spawning stock biomass and to be affected by environmental factors. This simple mechanism is applicable not only in fish species but also in insects such as Thrips imaginis in Australia. The reason that many biologists have not become aware that the density-dependent effect does not exist is discussed using a metaphor. This paper proposes a new concept in the study of population change. The new concept proposed here will replace the currently used basic concept that has been assumed to be correct for more than 50 years.</div>
Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9039150002904287443.post-72210040499926580182016-05-01T05:35:00.001+09:002016-05-01T05:41:23.276+09:00Tours feeding endangered wild owls in Shiretoko<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
According to <a href="http://digital.asahi.com/articles/ASHD863JGHD8UEHF014.html?_requesturl=articles%2FASHD863JGHD8UEHF014.html&rm=410">Asahi Newspaper of December 8, 2015,</a> Visitors to Shiretoko are "able to witness the Blakiston's fish owl up close in a special program organized by the Shiretoko Rausu Tourism Association in Rausu, a town in the Shiretoko Peninsula of eastern Hokkaido." Unlike the policy of other nations such as Yellowstone National Park in USA, "Live fish are placed inside a small pool surrounded by rocks within the river and it is here that the bird can be watched by the tourists." In <a href="http://www.nps.gov/yell/upload/YT15-16Winter_FINAL_web.pdf">Yellowstone</a>, "Do not feed any wild animals, including birds and squirrels."<br />
Because this species is critically endangered in Japan, the Environment Ministry of Japan "started working on the conservation of the owls from 1984, mainly by setting up feeding stations and bird houses in its habitat."<br />
The Shiretoko was selected as a UNESCO World Heritage site in 2005. An Environment Ministry official said, "We hope it [this tour] progresses smoothly in the right direction.” A tour guide said, “Down here, the Blakiston's fish owl shows its true form in the wild."<br />
According to Asahi Newspaper of March 8 (<a href="http://www.asahi.com/articles/ASJ395JMPJ39IIPE022.html">in Japanese</a>), The Ministry of Environment decided a new policy not to accept such a feeding tour. For the Shiretoko area, these owls have never been fed by the government project. The Shiretoko population of this species is a big source and Shiretoko is a World Heritage site.<br />
<div>
Japan Air Lines advertised a tour including this fish-owl show on the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/150131811764734/photos/a.186951371416111.36834.150131811764734/825769380867637/?type=3&theater">March 2016 issue of JAL in-flight magazine SKYWARD</a>. But this advertisement disappeared on <a href="https://www.jal.co.jp/domtour/hok/shiretokorausu/">Skyward website</a> by mid March. </div>
As of April 30, the Rausu sightseeing association still continues this tour.<br />
See also my opinion on the <a href="http://webronza.asahi.com/science/articles/2016030100005.html">Asahi WEBRONZA of March 15, 2016</a> (in Japanese).</div>
Hiroyuki Matsudahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06566132799096607672noreply@blogger.com0