October 15, 2017

Greeting Cheers on the Society of Population Ecology

Dear Participants of the 33rd Annual Meeting of the Society of Population Ecology,
Welcome to Fukuoka,
Non-Japanese members of our society may mind the future of this society if you heard a plan to collaborate the editorial boards between Population Ecology and Ecological Research.
Do not worry! Three present and past presidents of this society were also the past president of Ecological Society of Japan. Many steering committee members of this society overlap with the national committee members of ESJ. We plan to develop our activities of Population Ecology with ESJ.
Our slogan is NOT Japanese first, but Ecology first! Please enjoy this meeting and Fukuoka!
I hope your happiness, success, and the development of ecology!

August 16, 2017

Is tuna farming so bad? It depends on the situation including mortality in the cage.
Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2017 17:00:55 +0900
1. Catch of less than 3 years old is growth overfishing.
2. Under the current fishing mortarity, % SPR was less than 10%, implying heavy overfishing.
3. Catch of less than 5 years old or catch during spawning season is probably recruitment overfishing if we seek 40% SPR as sustainability constraint, the price during spawning season is much cheaper than during the winter, and assuming M=0.25/yr. I used the method by Matsuda et al. (1999).
4. Under the optimal age- and season-specific fishing, YPR under sustainable fisheries is nearly the same as the current YPR under current overfishing. We also expect a big stock recovery under the optimal fishery.

1) We can incorporate the effect of cultivated tuna. The impact on stock depends on the age caught, but as cultured tuna grows. It will rise in price. Tuna far,omg is not bad unless the mortality rate in the cage and the cost of cultivation are not too high.
2) However, a small part of immature tunas caught in purse seine are used for tuna farming (but we do not know the published data). Perhaps 3)It also depends on the cost of feeding and mortality in the cage (unpublished). In addition, now Japanese tuna farming is probably excessive and a large part of cultured tunas is not sold on the market. This implies an economic failure of tuna farming industry.
4) But reproductive values (ecological sense) during spawning season is only ca.10% larger than that during non-spawning season. Therefore, tuna farming is reasonable unless most of cultured fish are discarded on the market, the cost of cultivation or the mortality rate in the cage is not too high, or and these data are not published.

Matsuda H, Yamauchi A, Matsumiya Y and Yamakawa T (1999) Reproductive value, harvest value, impact multiplier as indicators for maximum sustainable fisheries. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies 2:129-146.
See also my Japanese blog.

March 31, 2017

I look forward to discussion with the audience of "Mission Blue" on April 13, Kyoto University.

March 30, 2017

Toward the Establishment of Technical Standards for Use in Marine Environment Impact Assessment pdf
30th March 2017
UN Conference Room 8
(Lunch will be provided in the Vienna Cafe area starting at 1:00 p.m.)
1:15 p.m. to 2:45 p.m.
Back Ground
In 2016, the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) established a working group (TC8/SC13/WG4) to make ISO standards on Marine Environment Impact Assessment (MEIA) applicable to all maritime areas. Actually, the existing international treaties on the law of the sea incorporate ISO standards and utilize them, because ISO standards are basically based on scientific evidence and technology, and therefore comparatively easy for States to accept. Meanwhile, in January 2017, the International Seabed Authority (ISA) published the Discussion Paper on the Development of “Environmental Regulations”. In this way, currently, the rules and standards on MEIA are being developed, not only in the PrepCom for new treaty of BBNJ, but also in the multiple arena,.
Against this background, ISO, ISA and Japan Agency of Marine of Marine Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)will jointly organize this side event to introduce the concept of the possible new ISO standard for MEIA, that will be compatible with future ISA regulations, showing the new technology for MEIA developed by JAMSTEC and related institutes.
Event Agenda
General Introduction:Dr. Yoshihisa Shirayama, JAMSTEC
Current Development of Technical Standards for MEIA,Dr. Makoto Seta, YNU-DEEPS
ž International Seabed Authority’s provision for EIA in the Area under approved plan of work, Dr. Sandor Mulsow, ISA,
ž Possible new ISO standards on MEIA, Prof.Koichi Yoshida, YNU-DEEPS
Open Discussion:Moderator,Prof. Koichi Yoshida
Closing remark:Prof. Yoshiyuki Nakamura, YNU

October 24, 2016

Merit of Japan says to list Pacific bluefin to CITES Appendix II/III
Date: Sat, 22 Oct 2016 21:07:52 +0900
Dear all,
[Pacific Islands fail to agree plan to protect tuna]
I have found one idea for Pacific bluefin.tuna.
If Japan propose to list PBF in CITES Appendix II, Taiwan and other nations cannot export PBF to Japan..Because Japan is the biggest consumer of PBT, other nations did not propose this idea. But Japan can do.
The listing is not my ultimate goal, but Japan can convince other Pacific islands nations to make a consensus of a stronger regulation of PBT fisheries in WCPFC. Therefore, Japan cannot say an excuse that consensus failed because Pacific islands disagreed.
Even though CITES does not agree with this listing. I think Japan can list it in CITES appendix III only by Japanese decision.
Therefore, environmental groups can push Japan to make a leadership for consensus building.

October 22, 2016

I compare two figures for spawning stock biomass of eastern Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABT), in 2009 and 2014. The former was used to support listing of it to CITES Appendix I in 2010. This was rejected. Recently ABT is recognized as a success story of stock recovery. But... it did NOT decrease in 2000s.
Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2016 14:34:27 +0900
 Stock assessment older than 20 yrs (maybe >maximum age class of ABT) is robust.
but recent stock estimation will be revised, because it is based on a cohort
analysis using catch-at-age data. 

Read more »

August 13, 2016

I talk about UNESCO's Biosphere Reserves and Carbon offset in "Training for realizing a society in harmony with nature for the JICA-SDBEC Program, on 1 August 2016, at JICA Yokohama:

  1. Biosphere reserves are models of sustainable development in the WNBR; (see MAB Strategy 2015-2025)
  2. Indulgence controversy: Some activists disagree with the principle of carbon offsets, likening them to Roman Catholic indul-gences, a way for the guilty to pay for absolution rather than changing their behavior.... Proponents hold that the indulgence analogy is flawed because they claim carbon offsets actually reduce carbon emissions, changing the business as usual, and therefore address the root cause of climate change. (see en.wikipedia.org)
  3. The end of the Oil Age: “The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” the quotation is from Sheikh Zaki Yamani, a past oil minister of Saudi Arabia (in 1970’s). Because he believes that something fundamental

    has shifted since that first oil shock. Finally, advances in technology are beginning to offer a way for economies, especially those of the developed world, to diversify their supplies of energy and reduce their demand for petroleum, thus loosening the grip of oil and the countries that produce it. (see www.economist.com  Oct 23rd 2003)
  4. Ivan the fool and Biodiversity Credit: Ivan‘s wife said to the old devil: “You must excuse my sister-in-law; she will not allow any one to sit at the table whose hands have not been hardened by toil, so you will have to wait until the dinner is over and then you can have what is left… "Ivan: "We all work with our hands." The devil: "And for that reason you are fools, I can teach you how to use your brains, and you will find such labor more beneficial." Ivan was surprised: "Well, it is perhaps not without good reason that we are called fools." The devil: "It is not so easy to work with the brain," (see http://www.bartleby.com/ebook/adobe/3172.pdf)
My Conclusion: 

  1. Now, Environmental offsets/credits and Payment for Ecosystem Services are good incentives to promote global environment-friendly economy and green ethics.
  2. It is not indulgence if it really reduces environmental impacts
  3. But,… we’d like to respect to nature and real ecosystem producers (farmers).